Arq Decisions: A Model for Collaborative Decision-Making
Arq Decisions boosts decision-making with a collaborative, decision intelligence platform. Learn how a platform for collective rationality empowers smarter and unified choices.
How we helped a client from Hamburg bring his innovative idea of making fast, effective, and top-notch decisions to life.
About Project
Arq Decisions (where Arq is Ask Right Questions) is a platform designed to enhance organizational decision-making. This modern solution combines collective intelligence and structured forecasting methods.
So, what factors often make companies lose profits? The answer is wrong and too slow, strategic decisions. This is a problem that Arq Decisions is ready to solve.
The platform’s core objective is to transform the way organizations approach complex decisions by systematically capturing and synthesizing knowledge within teams and networks. In other words, Arq Decisions can help corporations and big businesses improve the efficiency of making important decisions. The platform can be especially useful for HR-focused companies.
Arq Decisions streamlines the process of decision making, brings greater transparency, and collects analytics regarding the proposed decision. It allows companies to make better choices, improve the decision logic, and automate the process of collecting expert opinions.
Interesting Facts
To get the project and start cooperation with the customer, Lumitech needed to pass a test and win a challenging competition among other companies.
The first prototype of the solution was done by our experts before the first call with a client.
Client Request
The idea of Arq Decisions belongs to two outstanding people from Hamburg:
Niklas Wallmeier: a PhD in Economics from the University of Hamburg, a postdoctoral research scientist, and a person with lots of unique ideas. He believes that a group of experts, when correctly gathering information, can provide a better insight into the future than only one individual—the wisdom of the crowd.
Timo Wienefoet: an executive with a stunning financial background, who has been bringing innovations to the planning and management of companies for over 20 years. He assures that making decisions sooner and with better information gives corporations more options and makes them more resilient.
Requirements
The customer had a long list of requirements for the company to cooperate with. Moreover, to choose a partner, the client proposed several custom software development companies to pass a special test. Lumitech was chosen among hundreds of other companies to compete for the future project.
The Lumitech team did its best to create a prototype of the Arq Decisions in just two weeks. Our designers, developers, and managers worked together to understand the decision process in big corporations, invented new solutions to work with different data sources, and updated the entire workflow of making decisions.
As a result, Lumitech was successfully selected among other competitors to create an innovative service for collaborative decision-making.
Approach
The client had strict requirements and was looking for a company to implement his ideas fast. Therefore, Lumitech prepared the first prototype of the product before having its first call with a customer! As a result, during the first talk, we already had a list of ideas and solutions to bring to life. We didn’t lose time, and were ready to discuss all the product’s important aspects and features immediately.
This approach was highly valued by our customer and led to an incredibly productive cooperation.
Core Features
1. User’s Prediction Performance
This feature tracks and analyzes how accurately individual users forecast outcomes over time. It provides:
Performance metrics such as Brier scores, accuracy percentages, and confidence intervals.
Feedback loops so users can learn from their past predictions and refine their judgment.
Leaderboard or ranking systems to benchmark performance against peers or superforecasters.
Progress dashboards to visualize trends, strengths, and areas for improvement in forecasting skills.
Why it matters: It encourages accountability, learning, and continuous improvement, turning forecasting into a skill that can be developed and validated.
2. Upload Questions and Track Their Performance
Users or administrators can post forecasting questions (e.g., "Will we reach 10% market growth by Q4?") and track how predictions evolve:
Custom forecasting questions tailored to strategic, operational, or innovation goals.
Real-time tracking of how user predictions shift over time in response to new data or insights.
Comparing predictions with actual results to assess accuracy.
Analytics dashboards to observe consensus shifts, overconfidence, or disagreement.
Why it matters: This feature allows organizations to align strategic thinking with measurable foresight and test their intuitions in real-world scenarios.
3. Group and Organization Management
A robust administrative layer allows for structured collaboration across teams:
User group segmentation (by department, role, project team, etc.)
Permission control (who can create questions, forecast, and view insights)
Performance roll-ups to compare teams or business units.
Custom domains and branding for enterprise-level deployment.
Why it matters: It enables scaling of forecasting activities across large organizations while maintaining governance, oversight, and relevance to each unit.
4. Calibration Tool
Calibration tools assess how well users’ confidence in their predictions matches reality:
Confidence vs. accuracy tracking (e.g., when users say 80% likely, are they correct 80% of the time?)
Visual feedback tools (calibration curves, reliability diagrams)
Training modules to improve overconfidence or underconfidence.
Group-level calibration analysis to identify systemic biases.
Why it matters: Good forecasting isn't just about being right—it's about being accurately confident. Calibration tools build forecasting discipline and reduce cognitive bias.
Community
The community feature fosters collaboration, knowledge sharing, and cross-pollination of insights:
Discussion threads for each question or topic.
User profiles showing expertise areas and prediction stats.
Peer-to-peer feedback and crowd rationales to expose different mental models.
Open and closed communities (e.g., expert panels, internal teams, public forecasting challenges).
Why it matters: Forecasting quality improves when diverse perspectives interact. Community features enable collective intelligence and create a culture of strategic curiosity.
Summary
Lumitech was proud to contribute to the success of the Arq Decisions project, improving the decision-making process through innovative technology and strategic insights.
We streamlined the decision workflows and integrated advanced business intelligence solutions, as well as empowered Arq Decisions to make more accurate and timely data-driven choices.
Want to make your ideas live? Contact Lumitech today — let’s build smarter decisions together!
